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China pessimists are claiming vindication as growth slows in the world’s second-largest economy. Optimists point out that Beijing has fiscal room to respond but there are risks to any short-term policy measures. A surge in bank-financed investment, for example, could boost growth but it would likely also increase the stock of non-performing loans in the banking system and set back the goal of rebalancing growth by promoting private consumption. An ageing population and a rocky leadership transition strengthen the bears’ case.
随着世界第二大经济体增长放缓，对中国持悲观看法的人士声称自己的论点得到印证。对中国持乐观看法的人士则指出，中国政府在财政方面有应对增长放缓的操作空间，但任何短期政策措施都带有风险。例如，由银行贷款支撑的投资飙升虽然能够推动增长，但同时也很可能导致银行体系内的不良贷款存量增加，挫败旨在通过提振民间消费来实现增长再平衡的努力。中国人口的老龄化和领导层换届的坎坷过程也对悲观人士的论点形成了支撑。
However, there are grounds for hope. Recent political turmoil, including the Bo Xilai affair, put reactionary forces in the Communist Party of China on the defensive. Meanwhile, reform-minded officials pushed through some modest but significant financial market reforms.
但我们仍有理由心怀希望。近期的政治风波（包括薄熙来事件）迫使中共党内的保守势力处于守势。与此同时，改革派官员推动通过了一些步子不大但具有重要意义的金融市场改革措施。
The government has long recognised that reforming the financial sector is needed to improve the balance and sustainability of growth. Why has it not acted more forcefully before? The present system works well – for some. State-owned banks provide cheap financing for state enterprises, which are key fiefdoms of political patronage. Banks also provide financing to powerful provincial officials through shell corporations that bankroll pet investment projects. This is financed by paying Chinese households low or negative inflation-adjusted returns on their voluminous bank deposits.
中国政府早就认识到，为了改善经济增长的平衡性和可持续性，必须改革金融业。为什么之前它没有采取更有力的行动呢？因为现行体制运行良好（对某些实体来说确实如此）。国有银行向国有企业提供廉价资金，而这些国企正是受到政界庇护的关键部门。银行还通过空壳公司向手握重权的省级官员提供资金，使他们能为自己青睐的投资项目筹措资金。但这种融资的代价是，中国家庭部门庞大的银行存款所得到的回报率在剔除通胀因素后非常之低，甚至为负数。
All of this needs fixing, but the best of intentions can backfire. In an economy with many policy problems, getting rid of one or two can have unintended consequences. In 2008, asking banks to limit credit growth and avoid new non-performing loans were sensible moves. But banks had a lot of outstanding loans to weak state enterprises – starving them of credit would have turned those loans into non-performing loans in short order. So banks continued lending to state enterprises and shut off lending to the private sector, meeting the government’s conditions but thwarting its intentions.
这一切都需要改革来解决，但最好的意图也会产生反效果。在一个存有诸多政策问题的经济体中，解决一两个问题可能会招致意想不到的后果。2008年，中国政府要求银行抑制信贷增长，避免不良贷款扩大——这是很明智的举措。但银行向疲弱国企发放的大量贷款尚未得到偿还，停止向它们放贷会使这些贷款立刻变成不良贷款。于是，银行继续向国企放贷，并关闭了向私人部门放贷的大门。这样做虽然满足了政府对于抑制信贷增长的要求，却背离了政府的初衷。
Recent moves indicate that the government has learnt its lesson. It increased the flexibility of the exchange rate (in principle) when the renminbi was not under pressure to appreciate, relaxed the cap on interest rates paid on deposits, increased foreign investors’ access to capital markets and encouraged certain informal financial companies to become part of the formal banking system. Each of these moves has broader significance.
最近的举措表明，中国政府汲取了教训。它在人民币未面临升值压力的情况下（在原则上）提高了汇率的灵活性，放松了对存款利率的限制，拓宽了外国投资者进入中国资本市场的渠道，鼓励某些非正式金融企业成为正式银行体系的一部分。这些举措均有着更为深远的意义。
For example, giving informal financial companies the opportunity to join the formal banking system serves multiple ends. It brings them under the ambit of the banking regulator and reduces the risks they pose to financial stability. Moreover, they now provide more overt competition for established banks.
举例来说，让非正式金融类企业有机会加入正式银行体系可谓一举多得。这既把它们置于银行业监管部门的监管之下，又降低了它们对金融稳定构成的威胁。而且，这些企业还使现有的银行面临更多的公开竞争。
The need for interest rate liberalisation is widely recognised inside and outside of China. Freeing up deposit rates and abandoning the fixed spread between deposit and loan rates would result in better returns for depositors and encourage banks to sharpen their lending practices. The big banks have resisted this fiercely as it would cut into profits. So the government cleverly took a small step when it cut rates recently – freeing up banks to offer deposit rates marginally higher than the base rate, arguing that this would make the rate cut more palatable to depositors.
利率自由化的必要性在中国国内外均得到广泛认同。放开存款利率和不再设置固定的存贷息差，将为储户带来更高的回报，并鼓励银行提高放贷效率。大型银行对此抵制强烈，因为这会损害它们的利润。因此，中国政府抓住近期降息的时机巧妙地迈出了一小步：它放开了银行的存款利率，使其上限略高于基准利率，理由是这样做会使降息更容易获得储户的接受。
A one-shot approach to breaking up big banks or freeing interest rates risks a backlash and concerted opposition that could block changes altogether. Reform-minded officials are taking a more subtle approach – using a megaphone to draw attention to the problems and introducing small but tangible changes.
采取毕其功于一役的方式分拆大型银行或实现利率自由化会招致强烈反弹和共同抵制，可能彻底堵死改革的道路。改革派官员正在采取更为精细的方式：一面利用宣传机器吸引公众关注存在的种种问题，一面推出步幅不大但看得见摸得着的改革举措。
One can make a strong case that, with its economy growing more complex and market-oriented, China needs to move beyond this cautious approach. The 12th five-year plan issued last year laid bare the range of problems, including corruption and dismal corporate governance among Chinese enterprises, and deficiencies in the policy making process. Given the severe political constraints China’s leaders face, however, modest reforms by stealth are better than no reforms at all.
有人可能会提出一个强有力的论点，即考虑到本国经济日益复杂、市场化程度越来越高，中国应该采取更为大胆的方式进行改革。去年发布的“十二五”计划列出了一系列问题，如中国企业暴露出的腐败和公司治理水平低下、以及政策制定过程存在缺陷等。但考虑到中国领导人在政治领域面临的一些限制，悄悄地实施适度改革总好于根本不改革。
This strategy may slowly turn China in the direction it needs to go. Whether this will be enough to outrun the many demons China faces remains the big question.
这一战略或将逐步推动中国走上正确的发展道路。但这是否足以帮助中国克服其面临的诸多困难，仍是一个大大的问号。
The writer is a professor of economics at Cornell University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former head of IMF’s China division
本文作者是美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授和布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员、曾任国际货币基金组织(IMF)中国部主任
译者:倪卫国
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Post By：2012/8/8 11:55:39
