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China's Internet firms are a good advertisement for the resilience of the country's consumer spending.
While the wider economy is suffering the sharpest slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis, online advertising revenue is remarkably strong. Research firm Analysys says total revenue grew 54% in the second quarter from a year ago.
Even against that backdrop, though, there are still challenges. Revenue growth has slowed sharply since last year, reflecting tighter advertising budgets. Longer term, the industry still has to figure out how to profit from the shift to mobile Internet.
With a slowdown in growth making advertisers more cautious, some firms will get more 'likes' than others. The key to success is a wide client base, and adverts that allow customers to see a clear return on their spending.
Search giant Baidu scores highly in both categories. Chi Tsang, China Internet analyst at HSBC, says Baidu's 352,000 customers mean it is less vulnerable to a few big spenders turning tight-fisted. A large local clientele might also be more resilient than multinationals that are affected by the downturn in Europe.
At the same time, Baidu's pay-for-performance model means customers can see a clear return on their investment. That is important as advertisers keep a closer eye on their budgets.
At the other end of the spectrum are portals like Sina Corp. Sina has a concentrated client base, with just 860 customers in China in 2011. Such firms are more vulnerable than Baidu to a few high-value clients reducing their spending.
Online video should fall into the same category as portals. Market leader Youku had just 505 advertisers in 2011.
But video is receiving support from an unlikely source─China's government.
At the beginning of 2012, China rolled out new regulations banning advertisments during prime-time TV dramas. Market research firm Nielsen, which tracks advertising spent across TV and Internet, says the result has been a migration of advertising to online video sites like Youku.
Numbers from 2009, the last time China's economy slowed sharply, confirms the likely pattern of winners and losers. Baidu's online marketing revenue was bowed but unbroken at 39% year-on-year growth, down from 83% in 2008. Sina's advertising revenue fell 11%, a reversal from 53% growth the previous year.
Investors refreshing their view of China's Internet earnings should look for a repeat of the same pattern.
中国互联网企业真是给中国消费支出的强大韧性做了一个好广告。
Reuters新浪微博虽然中国整体经济增长正遭遇2008年金融危机以来的最严重的减速，但网络广告收入的表现却非常强劲。研究机构易观国际(Analysys)说，今年二季度网络广告总收入同比增长54%。
不过，即使是在这种背景下挑战仍然存在。自去年以来，网络广告收入增速已大幅放缓，反映出企业广告预算进一步收紧。从长远看，在向移动互联网转变的过程中，网络广告业仍然需要搞清楚如何实现盈利。
随着增长放缓，广告客户在投放广告时变得更加谨慎，某些广告公司可能会更受市场欢迎。成功的关键是拥有一个庞大的客户群，同时制作那些能让客户明显看到投入回报的广告。
搜索巨头百度在上述两方面的得分很高。汇丰(HSBC)中国互联网分析师Chi Tsang说，百度拥有35.2万名客户，这意味着就算少数大客户收紧广告预算，百度也不会受到太大冲击。相比受欧洲经济低迷影响的跨国公司，其庞大的国内客户群的恢复能力可能更强。
与此同时，百度所采用的“按业绩付费”(pay-for-performance)的收费模式意味着客户能清楚看到他们的投资回报，这在广告客户紧盯预算的当下尤为重要。
和百度相对的另一类广告投放渠道是新浪(Sina Corp.)等门户网站。新浪的客户群相对集中，2011年其在中国只有860名客户。和百度相比，一旦某些高价值客户减少广告投放支出，此类门户网站就更容易受到冲击。
在线视频网站和门户网站可以归为一类。市场领导者优酷(Youku)在2011年仅有505名广告客户。
但是，视频网站正在受到一个看似不大可能的对象的支持，这就是中国政府。
在2012年初，中国政府推出新规，禁止在黄金时段电视剧播出期间插播广告。市场研究机构尼尔森(Nielsen)说，这一新规导致的结果是广告投放向优酷等在线视频网站转移。尼尔森专门追踪电视和互联网媒体的广告收入。
2009年（也就是上一次中国经济大幅放缓的一年）的数据也确认了今天赢家和输家的可能格局。当年，百度的网络营销收入虽然受到冲击，但仍然实现了39%的同比增长，低于2008年83%的增幅。新浪的广告收入则下降了11%，而相比之下新浪2008年实现了53%的增长。
那些正在刷新自己有关中国互联网企业盈利观点的投资者或许应该为上述情形再次出现做好准备。
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Post By：2012/8/8 12:00:54
