让今年更赚钱的六大投资思路 Six Investment Moves To Make Now

 

        Dire predictions of market collapses and economic gloom in 2012 have so far proven overly pessimistic. But what should investors do to continue making money the rest of the year?  
        有些人曾预测2012年金融市场可能崩溃，经济前景一片黯淡，但从目前来看，这一预测过于悲观。投资者该如何去做，才能在今年余下的几个月里继续赚钱？  
        In January, many expected Europe's debt woes to spread from Greece to the rest of the euro zone, China's economic growth rate to falter and the U.S. to be once again gripped by a midyear market scare, if not necessarily one triggered by a debt-ceiling debate and a debt downgrade.   

        2012年1月，许多人认为欧债危机会从希腊蔓延到整个欧元区，中国经济增速徘徊不前，美国股市将在年中因债务上限争论或债务降级等因素再度遭遇抛售恐慌。  
        Given those concerns, many investors predicted the price of U.S. Treasurys, which do well when investors are fearful, would rise and the price of stocks and other risky assets would fall.  
        在这种考虑下，很多投资者认为美国国债（往往在市场恐慌时表现较好）的价格会上涨，股票和其他风险资产的价格会下跌。  
        Treasury prices did indeed rise, while their yields, which move in the opposite direction, fell to record lows. But the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained nearly 14% so far this year, while high-yield 'junk' bonds have returned nearly 10%. In fact, most major asset classes are in positive territory for the year.  
        国债价格确实上涨了，与国债价格反向运动的国债收益率跌至历史低位，但标普500股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)今年至今也已上涨近14%，高收益“垃圾债券”的回报率接近10%。事实上，今年大多数的主流资产类别都实现了正收益。  
        Behind the solid performance: European policy makers have been proactive in dealing with the Continent's problems, the decline in China's growth rate might be coming to an end, and the U.S. economy hasn't slipped into a recession.  
        支撑这些坚实投资业绩的是：欧洲政策制定者积极主动应对欧洲大陆面临的各种问题，中国的经济增长率可能止跌回升，美国也没有陷入另一次经济衰退之中。  
        Yet substantial uncertainties remain, ranging from the Federal Reserve decision on whether to launch another round of bond buying, China's leadership transition and Europe's wobbly single-currency zone.  
        不过，未来还有很大的不确定性，如美联储(Federal Reserve)会不会展开新一轮的国债购买行动，中国领导层的交接问题，以及欧洲摇摇欲坠的单一货币体制等。  
        To top it off, the U.S. elections in November could determine whether taxes rise or fall next year, and whether budget cuts will take a big chunk out of the gross domestic product.  
        此外，美国11月份的大选将决定明年税收政策的起伏，以及预算削减是否会给国内生产总值(GDP)带来较大的不利影响。  
        'There are a lot of stresses in the global marketplace and events that could lead to volatility,' says Phil Sharkey, head of investments for the New York metropolitan region at Citi Private Bank. 'You have an opportunity to look at where your portfolio is and consider whether or not you can make some changes.'  
        花旗私人银行(Citi Private Bank)负责纽约大都市区域投资业务的主管菲尔?沙奇(Phil Sharkey)说，“全球市场还存在很多压力，突发事件风险较大，这都可能导致市场出现波动。你现在可以审视一下自己的投资组合，看看是否有需要调整的地方。”  
        The key for investors is to find investments that still have room to rally during the next four months, but also can weather the potential downturns. Here are six ideas, culled from interviews with money managers and other experts:  
        对投资者来说，最关键的是要找到一些投资品种，既能在今年未来四个月中保持上涨空间，又能抵御经济低迷的风险。《华尔街日报》采访了投资经理和其他一些专家，总结出以下六大投资思路：  

        High-Yield Bonds  
        高收益债券  
        Yes, corporate junk bonds have rallied nearly 10% this year. And, yes, their yields have dropped to 6.87%, near their lowest level in at least 15 years. Still, the asset class offers the chance to earn solid returns for the rest of the year.  
        没错，企业垃圾债券今年已经上涨近10%；没错，它们的收益率已跌至6.87%，接近至少15年以来的最低点。不过，在未来数月，该资产类别仍有机会获得良好的投资收益。  
        Default rates are low, as the economy is doing just well enough for issuers to make their payments─and the Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels. 'You're kind of in the sweet spot,' says Eric Stein, manager of the Eaton Vance Strategic Income fund, which had 29% of its $2.9 billion portfolio in high-yield investments as of June 30.  
        企业垃圾债券的违约率很低，因为经济运行情况尚好，发债方能按时支付本息──而且美联储也已承诺继续把利率维持在极低的水平。伊顿万斯收入战略基金(Eaton Vance Strategic Income fund)的投资经理艾瑞克?斯坦恩(Eric Stein)说，“目前正是天时、地利、人和。”截至2012年6月30日，该基金管理的29亿美元有29%放在高收益投资品种上。  
        The rally, though, has made it tougher to find value. Michael Lewitt, a portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors, which has $2.1 billion under management, says that he is looking at short-term triple-C-rated bonds─those near the low end of the rating scale─that were the result of leveraged buyouts done right before the financial crisis.  
        不过，企业垃圾债券的整体上扬也让寻找价值洼地变得相对困难。美国坎伯兰顾问公司(Cumberland Advisors)管理着21亿美元的资产，其投资组合经理迈克尔?莱维特(Michael Lewitt)说，他正在关注投资级别为CCC的短期债券──即在评级标准上接近最差等级的品种──这些债券大多是金融危机爆发前不久因杠杆收购而产生的。  
        The issuers might have taken on too much debt, he says, but many still have solid businesses, limiting the chance of defaults.  
        莱维特说，这些发债方的债务负担也许很重，但其中不少企业的经营比较稳定，从而降低了违约的可能性。  
        Junk-bond funds that have been among the top performers this year and during the past three years include Federated High Yield Trust, Fidelity Advisor High Income Advantage and Hotchkis & Wiley High Yield Fund, according to Lipper.  
        根据基金情报提供商理柏公司(Lipper)的数据，垃圾债券基金是过去三年及今年至今以来表现最好的基金之一，包括联邦高收益信托基金(Federated High Yield Trust)、富达顾问高收入优势基金(Fidelity Advisor High Income Advantage)和Hotchkis & Wiley高收益基金(Hotchkis & Wiley High Yield Fund)等。  
        Municipal Bonds  
        市政债券  
        Municipal borrowers have gotten a lot of bad press this year, with cities like Stockton and San Bernardino in California filing for bankruptcy protection, sparking fears of more to come. But so far the asset class has weathered those defaults just fine, with the Barclays Municipal Bond index returning about 5% so far this year.  
        今年，市政借款人的坏消息不断，加州的斯托克顿(Stockton)和圣伯纳地诺(San Bernardino)等城市申请破产保护引发了更多的恐慌。不过，该资产类别目前经受住了违约的冲击，巴克莱市政债券指数(Barclays Municipal Bond index)本年至今的回报率在5%左右。  
        And since the bonds are tax-free, the returns are that much more valuable than those of other fixed-income products.  
        由于市政债是免税的，因此其投资回报的含金量比其他固定收益产品多得多。  
        The recent bankruptcies 'are very specific instances of financial trouble,' says Guy Benstead, a partner at Cedar Ridge Partners, which manages more than $600 million, speaking of the high-profile defaults. 'But contagion is just not there.'  
        Cedar Ridge Partners公司管理着六亿多美元的资产，其合伙人盖?本斯泰德(Guy Benstead)在谈到近期这些备受瞩目的债券违约时说，“这是一些地方政府出现财政危机的具体体现，但不至于蔓延开来。”  
        Municipal-bond yields are very attractive right now. A 30-year triple-A muni now pays 3.01%, Mr. Benstead says─1.7 percentage points more than an equivalent Treasury, once you factor in the tax break. Some states are even more generous: The average bond issued by New York state, for example, now yields 3.23%. New York is rated double-A by S&P.  
        本斯泰德说，目前市政债的收益率很有吸引力，30年期AAA级品种的利率为3.01%，把免税因素考虑在内的话，要比同期限美国国债的利率多出1.7个百分点。有些州的市政债利率更高。举例而言，纽约州发行的市政债目前平均收益率为3.23%，其在标普的投资等级为AA级。  
        'You can buy tax-free income with close to the same yield as taxable bonds,' Mr. Benstead says.  
        本斯泰德说，“免税债券的收益率已与非免税债券相差无几。”  
        If tax rates look like they will rise in 2013, municipal bonds might get another boost. As part of President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul, high-earning investors will be hit with a 3.8 percentage-point surtax on investment income next year. That makes munis, whose income isn't subject to the tax, that much more attractive, says Ron Roge, chief executive of wealth manager R.W. Roge & Co. in Bohemia, N.Y., which oversees more than $200 million.  
        如果2013年的税率上升，市政债券还将再次走红。作为奥巴马总统(President Barack Obama)医疗改革方案的一部分，明年政府将对高收入投资者额外征收3.8个百分点的利得税。财富管理公司R.W. Roge & Co.的首席执行长罗恩?罗杰(Ron Roge)说，这将使免税的市政债券变得更有吸引力。该公司位于纽约州波西米亚市(Bohemia)，管理着超过两亿美元的资产。  
        'People will realize they can shelter money in muni bonds,' he says. 'Demand will go up and prices will go up.'  
        罗杰说，“人们会意识到，他们可以把资金投到市政债券这个避风港上。对市政债券的需求将会加大，价格将上涨。”  
        Investment research firm Morningstar's top muni-bond mutual-fund picks include Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income and Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income.  
        投资研究机构晨星公司(Morningstar)评选的最佳市政债券共同基金包括富达中级市政收入基金(Fidelity Intermediate Municipal Income)和富兰克林联邦免税收入基金(Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income)等。  

        Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities  
        住房贷款抵押债券  
        During the housing downturn of 2008, few assets were more unloved than so-called nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities─those backed by home loans that weren't insured by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac FMCC -23.33% .  
        在2008年美国住房市场陷入衰退期间，非机构担保住房贷款抵押债券(nonagency RMBS)是最不受欢迎的；也就是说，这些债券的房屋抵押物没有房利美(Fannie Mae)或房地美(Freddie Mac)提供担保。  
        But in these days of low yields, nonagency RMBS have suddenly become popular. The reason? Once bad loans are accounted for, their yields average about 7%, more than double the yield on a 30-year Treasury bond.  
        但在目前的低收益率环境下，非机构RMBS突然变得吃香起来。原因何在？因为即使把不良贷款考虑在内，这些债券的平均收益率约为7%，是30年期美国国债收益率的一倍以上。  
        They also are benefiting from the fact that no new securities are hitting the market while older bonds are slowly disappearing, as homeowners refinance the loans and pay down their balances, says Michael Murgio, chief investment strategist at GenSpring Family Offices, a wealth-management firm that oversees $15.4 billion.  
        Genspring Family Offices是一家管理着154亿美元资产的财富管理公司，其首席投资策略师迈克尔?莫奇奥(Michael Murgio)说，还有一点对这种债券是有利的，即没有新债券投放市场，老债券则随着房屋业主的贷款再融资和分期还贷在慢慢消失。  
        At the same time, the issues that have plagued these securities are slowly being worked out, says Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at asset-manager TCW Group, which oversees $77 billion in U.S. fixed-income assets.  
        资产管理公司TCW Group的固定收益投资总监泰德?瑞威尔(Tad Rivelle)说，与此同时，将这些债券推入深渊的种种问题正在慢慢得到解决。该公司管理着770亿美元的美国固定收益资产。  
        Among the positives: Mortgage servicers have been putting the infrastructure in place to deal with defaults; losses on the loans have been steady and could get smaller; and the housing market looks like it could be turning the corner.  
        各种利好因素包括：抵押贷款服务商一直在建立机制应对违约情况；贷款损失金额比较稳定，并有可能减少；住房市场出现复苏迹象。  
        It is difficult and expensive for small investors to buy RMBS directly. Instead, Lou Stanasolovich of Legend Financial Advisors recommends the Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income mutual fund, which had more than 78% of its portfolio allocated to nonagency RMBS as of the end of June, according to Morningstar.  
        小投资者直接购买非机构RMBS比较困难，成本也高。Legend Financial Advisors公司的卢?斯塔纳索洛维奇(Lou Stanasolovich)建议买入天使橡木多元化收入(Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income)共同基金。据晨星公司的数据，截至2012年6月底，该基金配置在非机构RMBS上的比重超过78%。  

       Dividend-Paying Stocks  
        分红股票  
        It is tempting to look at the high valuations attached to dividend-paying stocks and say they are overpriced. But investors should remember that the last time government-bond yields were so low was in the 1950s, says Tobias Levkovich, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citigroup. He believes dividend payers could outperform as long as interest rates stay low.  
        人们可能会注意到分红股票的高估值，因此认为其价格过高。然而，花旗集团(Citigroup)首席美国股票策略师托拜斯?莱夫科维奇(Tobias Levkovich)说，投资者应该记住20世纪50年代美国国债收益率极低的那个时期。他认为，只要利率保持低位运行，分红股票会有更好的表现。  
        That is especially true if something goes wrong in Europe or elsewhere in the world, says Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based private bank Northern Trust NTRS +0.13% .  
        芝加哥私人银行Northern Trust的首席投资策略师吉姆?麦当劳(Jim McDonald)说，如果欧洲或其他国家爆发危机，分红股票的优势会更明显。  
        He is telling clients to load up on high-quality U.S. large-cap stocks, as well as on global multinational corporations that are benefiting from U.S. stability and stronger growth in emerging markets. (For more on dividend-stock strategies, see this week's Upside column, page B7.)  
        他建议客户增持高质量的美国大市值股票，以及那些能从美国保持稳定和新兴市场增长加速中获益的全球跨国公司股票。  
        With the Bush-era tax cuts for dividends set to expire in 2013, Mr. Levkovich says investors should consider companies that are in a position to raise debt in order to issue special one-time payouts before year-end. In a recent report, Mr. Levkovich said companies like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, FCX +0.08% Marathon Oil MRO -0.95% and Best Buy BBY -0.69% could be candidates for such payouts, based on a screen that looked at debt levels and other measures.  
        由于小布什(Bush)执政期间的股息减税政策即将于2013年到期，莱夫科维奇建议投资者考虑持有那些有能力在今年年底发行债券用于一次性特别分红的上市公司。在最近一份研究报告中，莱夫科维奇根据对负债水平和其他一些指标的分析，推荐的是弗里波特-麦克莫兰铜金公司(Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold)、马拉松石油公司(Marathon Oil)和百思买公司(Best Buy)。  

        Cyclical Stocks  
        周期性股票  
        Investors looking for a riskier bet should consider stocks in more economically sensitive sectors of the market known as 'cyclicals,' including tech and energy, some strategists say. Such companies could see a pop if potential economic problems are resolved.  
        一些策略师表示，追求高风险高收益的投资者可以考虑对经济环境更为敏感的“周期性”板块，包括高科技和能源类股票等。如果经济方面的潜在问题得以解决，这些上市公司的表现会有长足进步。  
        For example, cyclical stocks could benefit if U.S. economic data improve this fall after the early summer's run of soft numbers, says Barry Knapp, chief equity strategist at Barclays BARC.LN +3.57% . They also could rally if the U.S. elections provide clarity on taxes and budget cuts.  
        巴克莱(Barclays)首席股票策略师巴里?纳普(Barry Knapp)说，举例而言，如果美国的经济数据继今年夏初的疲软后有所复苏，周期性股票将获益良多。如果美国大选在税收政策和预算削减问题上扫清迷雾，这些股票也可能大涨。  
        A lower-risk, if more complicated, bet would be buying call options, which give investors the chance to buy an asset at a predetermined price, on industrial stocks, Mr. Knapp says.  
        纳普说，一个风险相对较低、但可能更为复杂的做法是买入工业类股票的看涨期权，从而让投资者能以事先确定的价格购买资产。  
        Cyclical stocks also have the benefit of being cheap. In the three months since the market's recent low on June 12, the S&P 500 rallied 8.5%, but cyclicals underperformed 'defensive' stocks by about 0.3%, according to Credit Suisse CSGN.VX +2.26% research.  
        周期性股票还有一个好处，就是便宜。据瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse)的数据，从2012年6月12日的市场近期低点以来，近三个月标普500指数上扬了8.5%，但周期性股票的表现落后于“防御型”股票0.3个百分点左右。  
        That is highly unusual: During the past 30 years, it has happened just 10 times, the last time in 2006. During six of those episodes, the markets continued to rally, with cyclical stocks taking the lead.  
        这十分不正常：过去30年来，这种情况只发生过10次，最近一次是在2006年。在这10次中，有六次市场继续上涨，而领军的正是周期性股票。  
        Energy stocks now have a 12-month forward price/earnings ratio of 11.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 12.8. Industrial stocks have a P/E ratio of 12.6.  
        目前，能源类股票的未来12个月市盈率(P/E)为11.5，而标普500指数的市盈率为12.8，工业类股票的市盈率为12.6。  
        Low-cost exchange-traded funds that track cyclical stocks include the Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI +0.49% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE -0.04% .  
        投资者可以选择低成本的跟踪周期性股票的交易所交易基金(ETF)，如Industrial Select Sector SPDR和Energy Select Sector SPDR等。
  
        Emerging-Market Bonds  
        新兴市场债券  
        Despite the slowdown in economic growth that has hit much of the developing world, bonds issued by emerging-market nations still look attractive. Such markets used to be considered debt-laden and volatile; these days they offer cleaner balance sheets and economic growth.  
        虽然许多发展中国家的经济增长都出现放缓，但新兴市场国家发行的债券依然具有吸引力。以往人们认为这些国家的债务水平高，市场波动性大，但现在看来，新兴国家的资产负债表更健康，经济增长能力较强。  
        They also offer something you can't get with most developed-market government bonds: yield. The payouts might not be astronomical, but they are much better than those offered by Treasurys, Mr. Stein says, whose $6.4 billion Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return fund owns the bonds of Malaysia, the Philippines and Mexico. The fund has returned 2.02% so far this year and has a yield of 3.64%.  
        新兴市场债券还能提供绝大多数发达国家政府债券所欠缺的东西：收益率。斯坦恩说，虽然新兴市场债券的收益率不算太高，但也比美国国债好得多。他管理的64亿美元规模的伊顿万斯全球宏观绝对收益基金(Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return fund)持有马来西亚、菲律宾和墨西哥的债券。该基金本年至今的投资回报率是2.02%，债券收益率为3.64%。  
        So far this year, emerging-market bonds denominated in U.S. dollars have returned close to 12%, nearly four percentage points more than such bonds denominated in local currencies.  
        今年至今，以美元计价的新兴市场债券的回报率接近12%，比以当地货币计价的此类债券高出近四个百分点。  
        That might be about to change. David Rolley, co-head of the global fixed-income group at money manager Loomis Sayles, says local currency bonds offer more opportunity than those denominated in U.S. dollars, though investors should expect more volatile price swings. 'Some have been very volatile,' he says. 'But there's better value in local currency bonds.'  
        这种情况可能即将发生变化。资产管理公司Loomis Sayles的全球固定收益联席经理戴维?罗利(David Rolley)说，以当地货币计价的新兴市场债券有更大的投资机会，当然，其价格波动性可能也更大。罗利说，“有些债券波动性非常大，但更具投资价值。”