| The news out of the Middle Kingdom overnight wasn't very reassuring: HSBC's August PMI for China hit a nine-month low, another sign that the economy in China is slowing down. This is on top of the last GDP reading, which came in at a weak-for-China 7.6%. |
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前夜从中国传来的消息并不令人放心：汇丰(HSBC)8月份采购经理人指数(PMI)初值跌至九个月来新低。这是表明中国经济正在放缓的另一个迹象。此前公布的二季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据也不容乐观，同比增速仅有7.6%。 |
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| But by how much is China slowing down? That's the real question, and there isn't a very good answer. |
但中国经济增速到底放慢了多少？这才是我们真正应该关心的问题。对此并没有一个非常理想的答案。 |
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| 'Even with the decline, there is speculation that these figures may still understate economic slowing,' a new paper from the Dallas Fed notes, referencing the official GDP numbers, but making the point that China's data are notoriously unreliable. 'Economists have long doubted the credibility of Chinese output data. |
Reuters上海上空的乌云达拉斯联邦储备银行(Dallas Fed)新近在一份研究报告中提到中国政府公布的GDP数据时指出，即使中国公布的经济增速已经出现了下降，但仍有人猜测说，已经公布的经济数据可能低估了中国经济放缓的程度。报告同时指出中国公布的经济数据是出了名的不可靠，报告说，经济学家长期以来一直怀疑中国经济产出数据的可信度。 |
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| 'The dubious character of the official figures is no secret in China,' the paper notes, referencing a particularly infamous wikileaks disclosure, in which a senior Chinese official, Vice Premier Li Keqiang, told a U.S. diplomat that 'official' GDP figures are 'for reference only.' |
这份报告指出，官方公布的经济数据不可靠在中国早已是尽人皆知的秘密。报告还提到了维基解密(wikileaks)披露的一件事：中国国务院副总理李克强曾告诉美国外交官，中国官方公布的GDP数据“仅供参考”。 |
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| The Fed paper, trying to get a better look inside China, compares electricity consumption - one of the indicators Li mentioned he himself looks at for an accurate take on the economy - to official industrial production numbers. He draws the conclusion that if the official numbers were right, electricity usage would have been far higher than it actually was. |
为了能更好地了解中国经济的真实情况，美联储在这份报告里将用电量和官方发布的工业产出数据进行对照研究（李克强在上述谈话中曾经提到过，为准确了解中国经济情况，他会关注用电量数据），报告得出的结论是，如果官方数据没有问题，那么中国用电量应该远远高于目前实际水平。 |
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| This is, of course, about the worst-kept secret there is. Everybody knows China's official numbers are fraught with questions. So while we know that China's economy is cooling off, we don't know exactly by how much. |
报告所说当然已经是公开秘密。大家都知道中国的官方数据充满了各种问题。所以虽然我们知道中国经济在减速，但我们并不清楚其降幅到底有多大。 |
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| 'The slowdown in China could be worse than the official data indicate,' the paper concludes. |
这份报告得出的结论是，中国经济的放缓程度可能比官方数据所揭示的还要糟糕。 |
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| What we do know is that jobs cuts are rising, our colleague in Beijing, Tom Orlik, reported today: |
我们所确知的是，中国的裁员数量正在增加。《华尔街日报》的Tom Orlik在《中国劳动力市场进一步收紧》一文中说： |
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| 'Anecdotal evidence suggests that an increasing number of coastal enterprises are laying off workers or closing down factories,' HSBC economists said in a note. 'It is time for Beijing to focus more squarely on the job market.' |
汇丰的经济学家在一份报告中说，有证据表明，越来越多的沿海企业开始裁员或关闭工厂；现在是北京更加密切地关注就业市场的时候了。 |
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| There are also some signs that labor unrest is on the rise. China Labour Bulletin, a nongovernmental organization that tracks collective action by Chinese workers, recorded 37 incidences of worker strikes and protests in July, roughly double the number in January, with more actions over unpaid wages. |
也有一些迹象表明，罢工数量有所上升。专门追踪中国工人集体行动的非政府组织中国劳工通讯(China Labour Bulletin)的记录表明，7月份中国共发生了37次罢工和抗议活动，这一数字大约是今年1月份的两倍。因讨薪而发起的活动数量有所增加。 |
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Third-quarter economic data so far suggest China's first-half slowdown is continuing, increasing pressure on policy makers to increase lending or boost government spending to rekindle growth.
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三季度迄今为止发布的经济数据表明，中国上半年经济放缓的趋势仍将继续，这加大了决策者增加贷款数量或增加政府开支以重新拉动经济增长的压力 |
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Post By：2012/8/29 11:11:36
