China’s growth fell to 7.6 per cent in the second quarter, its slowest since early 2009, as a property market downturn and weak exports weighed on the world’s second-biggest economy.

Over the past two months, as evidence of the slowdown has mounted, the government has shifted its policy to a pro-growth stance, which analysts say is likely to bring about a recovery in the second half of the year.

“The expectation for weakness in the second quarter was pretty strong. But the investment number is the surprise. There appears to have been a significant pick-up. That is policy beginning to work”, said Ken Peng, an economist with BNP Paribas in Beijing. “We are looking for a small rebound in the third quarter and a bigger rebound in the fourth quarter.”

The year-to-date investment figure jumped to 20.4 per cent last month from 20.1 per cent in May, an indication that the increase in investment in June alone must have been considerably stronger, following on the heels of the government’s moves to stimulate the economy.

The Chinese central bank cut interest rates last week, the second time in less than a month. Premier Wen Jiabao has also said that the government will look to increase public investment in order to stabilise the economy.

A steep drop in inflation, to just over 2 per cent from last year’s high near 7 per cent, has cleared the way for more aggressive policy easing.

The latest bank lending figures, published on Thursday, confirmed that the government is clearly trying to support growth. New loans reached Rmb920bn in June, up from Rmb793bn in May and more than expected.

Yet officials have also repeatedly vowed that they will not unleash a massive stimulus programme as they did in late 2008 when the global financial crisis erupted. That boom in spending and bank lending fuelled debt worries that China is still trying to contain as well as a property bubble that it has been trying to deflate.

Mr Wen has also been adamant that the government will not relax the measures that it has used to dampen property speculation, fearful that a big rebound in already lofty housing prices could ensue.

If the second quarter does indeed prove to be the trough of this economic cycle for China, commentators who have described the current downturn as a soft landing would have some vindication.

The peak-to-trough drop in growth would be 4.5 percentage points from 2010 to now. That contrasts with a plunge of 8 percentage points in the previous downturn, from 2007 to the start of 2009.

由于房地产市场低迷以及出口减弱带来的压力，中国这个世界第二大经济体的二季度经济增速下降到7.6%，为2009年初以来的最低点。

过去的两个月，经济放缓迹象日趋明显，政府已经将政策转移至保增长方向。分析师表示，这或许能在今年下半年带来经济复苏。

“人们对于第二季度经济减弱的预期十分强烈，但投资数据却出乎预料，看起来有大幅改善。这是因为政策开始奏效了。”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻北京经济学家彭程(Ken Peng)说：“我们预计第三季度经济会有小幅度的反弹，第四季度会有大幅度反弹。”

1-6月全国固定资产投资同比增长20.4%，较1-5月的20.1%大幅提升，表明6月份投资增长十分显著，这得益于政府刺激经济的举措。

上周中国央行下调了利率，这是一个月内第二次下调利率。温家宝总理也表示，政府将确保增加公共投资以稳定经济。

通胀率大幅下降，由去年近7%的高值回落至2%出头，为中国政府采取更积极的宽松政策扫清了障碍。

本周四发布的最新银行贷款数字证实，政府确实在想方设法保增长。6月新增贷款超出预期，由5月的7930亿元人民币增加到9200亿元人民币。

但官员们反复声明，他们不会像2008年全球金融危机爆发时那样，推出一项庞大的刺激计划。当时的财政支出和银行贷款激增引发了人们对债务水平（政府目前仍在努力抑制其增长）的担忧，也助长了房地产泡沫（政府正在努力为其降温）。

温家宝也坚决表示，中国政府不会放松旨在抑制房地产投机的种种措施，以防目前已很高的房价再度大幅反弹。

如果第二季度确实是中国本轮经济周期的低谷，那将在一定程度上证明，视当前经济下滑为软着陆的评论人士是正确的。

由2010年至当前低谷，经济增长率较峰值下降了4.5个百分点。这与上次经济下滑形成鲜明对比——2007年至2009年初，增长率下降了8个百分点。