“92共识”还会是两岸关系的基础吗？
For Taiwan, 20 Years of Agreeing to Disagree with Beijing

 

在习近平即将就任中国最高领导人之际，台湾的高级官员们上周五却在庆祝一件与之不太相关的事：过去20年来实际上建立在一系列口头协议基础上的海峡两岸关系。

20年前，北京和台北的官员们达成协议，承认双方同属“一个中国”，并同意双方对一个中国的含义进行各自的表述。台湾总统马英九上周五说，这一所谓的“92共识”一直是此后这些年里海峡两岸关系的重要基础。

Bloomberg News2012年10月15日，一名女子从台北一座桥上走过。现在，尽管两岸关系达到了60多年来最密切的程度，台湾最高领导人上周的一系列言论却显示，字斟句酌的措施依然是海峡两岸政府之间关系的核心所在。这两个政府目前仍存在根本性分歧。

台湾总统马英九上周四说，虽然他不排除未来某个时候邀请中国领导人来台湾访问，但领导人头衔的具体称谓却有可能成为他们访台的障碍。马英九在接受香港《亚洲周刊》采访时说，由于北京没有承认台北政府的合法性，它预计不会以正确的头衔称呼台湾官员。

中国的国有媒体通常称马英九为台湾领导人，或者将其总统头衔用引号括起来。

马英九说，这看起来是小事，但双方必须找到一个适当的解决办法，因为这事其实很重要。

马英九的这番话表明，在“92共识”形成20年后，海峡两岸的关系在很大程度上仍然依赖于对措辞的拿捏。

自从1949年中国内战结束以来，北京一直视自我管理的台湾为一个叛离的省份，那一年在内战中被打败的国民党撤退到台湾。过去几年中，台湾和中国大陆努力拉近彼此的关系，其主要做法是搁置讨论台湾的政治身份等难以解决的问题，转而把关注点放在增进两岸经济关系上。

中国即将卸任的中共总书记胡锦涛努力留下海峡两岸和平共处的政治遗产，他有关海峡两岸关系的政治言论比其前任***要缓和，胡锦涛更看重两岸在商业联系和文化交往方面的实际进展。

但随着习近平即将成为中国最高领导人，台北的许多人士想知道海峡两岸间未来的对话方向。

台湾政治大学国际关系研究中心代理主任丁树范(Arthur Ding)说，由于中共党内权力的分散，习近平可能会对台湾采取强硬立场以显示他不是一个软弱的领导人。丁树范说，中国领导人可能会将马英九的剩余任期视为他们按己方意图推进两岸关系的一个机会，因为不清楚马英九的继任人在两岸问题上会采取何种立场。

中国问题观察人士指出，习近平当年在福建省任职时与台湾的商界人士很熟，而他身为知名民歌演唱家的妻子彭丽媛则访问过台湾。但这些人士说，以往的这些与台湾的联系是否会对习近平未来的对台政策产生影响依然有待观察。

With China preparing for the imminent ascent of president-in-waiting Xi Jinping, Taiwan's top officials spent Friday marking a slightly different occasion: Twenty years of cross-strait relations built -- essentially -- on a rhetorical punt.

Two decades ago, officials from Beijing and Taipei agreed to recognize they're part of the same 'One China' -- while agreeing to disagree on the term's interpretation. The so-called '1992 Consensus' has been the critical foundation for subsequent cross-Strait relations, Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou said on Friday.

Now, even as the two sides enjoy their closest ties in more than 60 years, comments by top leaders this week suggest that careful wording is still at the heart of the relationship between two governments fundamentally at odds with each other.

President Ma Ying-jeou said Thursday he would not rule out inviting Chinese leaders to the island sometime in the future, but the wording of titles could be an impediment. Since Beijing does not recognize the Taipei government, it would not likely call Taiwanese officials by their proper titles, he said in an interview with the Hong Kong-based weekly Yazhou Zhoukan.

Chinese state media typically refer to Mr. Ma simply as Taiwan's leader, or enclose his title in quotation marks.

'This looks like a small thing but the two sides have to find an appropriate solution because of the important concept that lies behind it,' Mr. Ma said.

Mr. Ma's comment demonstrates that 20 years after the 1992 Consensus, much of the relationship still depends heavily on phraseology.

Beijing has viewed self-governing Taiwan as a renegade province ever since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when the defeated Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, retreated to the island. In the past few years, Taiwan and China have managed to grow closer, largely by shelving hard questions about Taiwan's political identity and focusing instead on building the economic relationship.

China's outgoing Communist Party chief Hu Jintao has striven for a legacy of cross-Strait peace by dialing back the political rhetoric of his predecessor Jiang Zemin in favor of practical gains in business ties and cultural exchange.

But with Mr. Xi soon to take over the helm, many in Taipei wonder where the future dialogue will go.

'With the fragmentation of power in the Party, Mr. Xi may take an assertive stance on Taiwan to show he is not a weak leader,' says Arthur Ding, acting director of National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations. 'Also, Chinese leaders may see President Ma Ying-jeou's remaining term in office as an opportunity to push through their agenda, as it is not clear what stance Mr. Ma's predecessor will have.'

China watchers note that Mr. Xi became quite familiar with Taiwanese businessmen during the early part of his career in southern China's Fujian province, and that his wife, well known folk singer Peng Liyuan, has visited Taiwan. However, they say it remains to be seen whether these past associations with Taiwan will have any effect on Mr. Xi's future policies.