西班牙政府本身需要救助吗？
Spain's acquiescence to a bailout of as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) for its banks is a prelude to a much bigger question: Will Spain need a bailout for itself?
Some in financial markets say it ultimately will, and that Spain faces a daunting struggle convincing reluctant creditors that the country is a viable borrower.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Sunday expressed hope that the bailout would help the country's ailing economy, saying, 'The European project, the future of the euro and our banking system all won new credibility yesterday.' But he warned against expecting a quick turnaround following the banking rescue.
'This year is going to be a bad one, growth is going to be negative by 1.7%, and also unemployment is going to increase,' he said.
That leads many to conclude Spain will have an even larger deficit -- and need even more borrowing from capital markets -- than it now projects.
Helen Haworth, head of European interest-rate strategy for Credit Suisse in London, said there could be a bit of a relief rally this week. But fundamentally, she said, 'to me, there is still no buyer of Spanish debt beyond the domestic investor base, which is basically the Spanish banks.'
Whether Spain can avoid another bailout, for itself, is crucial to the future of the euro zone as it enters a tumultuous summer. Greece holds elections next Sunday that could set it on a path to leave the currency union. Italy is laboring to refinance its own giant debt pile under immense scrutiny.
Amid these threats to the euro, a full bailout of Spain could be a cataclysmic event. Spain's economy is the fourth-largest in the euro zone -- larger than those of Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined. Finding the funds for a rescue would greatly strain the euro zone's bailout vehicles.
The question of a broader bailout follows Saturday's announcement that Spain would accept as much as 100 billion euros in aid with the intent of funneling the money into its ailing banking sector. Officials sought to portray the move as a limited intervention that falls short of the other euro-zone rescues -- which have come with painful overhauls of entire economies.
Even as Spain accepts help, many eyes are on the elections in Greece, the home of Europe's most painful overhaul. Sunday's vote pits a mainstream party that supports the country's bailout measures against an upstart party, Syriza, that wants to rip up the deal.
The two sides are running neck and neck, and officials fear a decisive win by Syriza could raise the odds of a fracture in the currency union and trigger further tumult in the Spanish financial sector.
Spain's economy is flailing and foreign investors have fled from its government bonds all year. That has created a pressing worry: How will Spain pay for its sizable government deficit, officially projected at 5.3% of gross domestic product but widely expected to be larger?
Early this year, Spanish banks picked up the slack, but now they are backing off. Spain says it needs to borrow 86 billion euros this year to cover deficits and repay maturing debt; it has raised around 50 billion euros so far, leaving it to find a further 36 billion euros from capital markets. By turning to its euro-zone peers for help with its banks, Spain is tacitly admitting money will be hard to find.
'What you have to say now is that Spain is likely to lose access to the bond markets completely at some point,' said Justin Knight of UBS in London. 'It has demonstrated to everybody that market access is limited by requesting aid.'
In the short term, market analysts said, Spain's bonds could see a boost. The European aid for banks means Spain won't have to issue new bonds right away to fund the rescue. The Spanish government-bond market rallied last week in anticipation of an aid deal, and 10-year bonds yielded 6.25% Friday, off the peaks above 6.7% on May 30.
With foreign investors almost completely absent from Spanish bond markets for months, Spanish banks have propped up the government, which is now forced to turn to Europe for help propping up the weaker banks. Meanwhile, the stronger banks are shying away from buying government bonds -- for fear they would be dragged down, too.
That knot between the government and its banks has been devilishly difficult to untie.
After a meeting with European finance officials Saturday, Spain said it would try to cut the knot by soon requesting aid from the euro zone. Those funds, coming from the bloc's bailout vehicles, would be lent to Spain, which would take stakes in troubled banks in return for cash or bonds.
The plan is short on details, particularly on what would be demanded of Spanish banks in return for the help. A senior euro-zone official involved in the discussions said the governments moved quickly because 'Spain was on the verge of being unable to finance itself on the markets.'
Spain will lose control over the supervision of its banks to international and European authorities, who will scour the banks' books and may order banks to shed assets -- or even demand the closing of lenders seen as unviable.
The bailout will help Spain in one clear way: It is a low-cost means of rapidly cobbling together large sums that Spain would otherwise have had to pay dearly for -- if it could find anyone to lend to it at all.
But it comes with a number of pitfalls. First, economists and market analysts point out, the costs of the bank rescue still fall on Spain: It must repay the European loans.
Second, the parameters of that aid make it more difficult for Spain to raise additional money. That is because lending from the European Stability Mechanism, the new euro-zone bailout fund that is expected to handle the bulk of the aid, is intended to have a 'senior' creditor status: The ESM is meant to be repaid before holders of regular Spanish bonds if Spain were to default on its debts.
Mr. Knight of UBS said 'the fear that bondholders are subordinated by this' will make investors reluctant to buy Spanish debt.
If Spain is to avoid its own bailout, it will have to convince lenders its banking problems are under control. That isn't easy. And then Spain will need to convince lenders that, banking problems aside, it can survive.
To that end, Europe's strategy -- and now Spain's -- is to present the bailout commitment as a limited support program, far from the intrusive rescues that were needed for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
Spain's banking-sector problem is a deep one but not the only one the government faces. The economy is contracting viciously and unemployment is staggeringly high. The central government has had difficulty controlling the finances of its regional governments.
'At the end of the day, we also know that the Spanish regions are going to need a lot more funding than has been assumed,' said Ms. Haworth of Credit Suisse. 'The Spanish deficit forecast of 5.3% is clearly not going to be met.'
Charles Forelle in London / Gabriele Steinhauser in Brussels
西班牙默认欧元区将为其银行业提供至多1,000亿欧元(合1,250亿美元)的救助款，而紧随其后的一个更重大问题是：西班牙本身会需要救助吗？
Reuters周日在西班牙马拉加一次反对银行救助计划的游行上，一名女子用一张假的欧元蒙住了自己的嘴。金融市场里的一些人说，最终它会需要的。他们说，西班牙面临一场令人生畏的斗争，它需要让那些不情愿的放款人相信，可以借钱给西班牙。
西班牙首相拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)周日表示，希望这次救助能对西班牙面临困境的经济起到帮助作用。他说，欧洲救助项目、欧元的未来和我们的银行体系昨天都获得了新的可信度。但他提醒人们，不要以为完成这轮银行救助后情况就会立即好转。
拉霍伊说，今年的情况会很糟，西班牙经济将负增长1.7%，失业率也将上升。
很多人因此得出结论，西班牙的赤字规模将比现在预计的还要大，该国甚至可能需要从资本市场借更多的钱。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻伦敦的欧洲利率策略业务主管霍沃思(Helen Haworth)说，西班牙国债价格本周可能会因投资者感到松了口气而出现些许反弹。但她说，我认为从根本上讲，除本土投资者外，西班牙债券仍然不会迎来任何买家，而本土投资者基本上就是西班牙的银行。
随着欧元区进入令人不安的夏季，西班牙能否避免为自身申请救助对于欧元区的未来而言变得至关重要。希腊将于下周日举行大选，或许将从此走上退出欧元区的道路，而意大利则正在各方的密切关注下努力为其庞大的债务进行再融资。
考虑到欧元面临的这些威胁，全面救助西班牙可能会成为一个灾难性事件。西班牙是欧元区第四大经济体，经济规模超过希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰三国的总和。为救助西班牙寻找资金将使欧元区的救助工具面临极大压力。
在西班牙上周六宣布其银行业将接受至多1,000亿欧元救助款后，外界开始担心该国是否需要接受更大规模的救助。西班牙官员努力将救助该国银行业描述为一项有限的干预，不能和欧元区其他一些成员国接受的救助相提并论。那些救助让受援经济体承受了痛苦的改革。
就在西班牙接受救助之际，很多人正把关注的目光投向希腊选举。希腊是经历最痛苦改革的欧洲国家。下周日，一个支持希腊接受救助方案的主流党派将与希望背弃救助协议的激进左翼联盟(Syriza)在选举中展开对决。
这两个党派的支持率目前不相上下。有官员担心，如果激进左翼联盟获得决定性胜利，欧元区解体的可能性就会增大，并将触发西班牙金融业的进一步动荡。
西班牙经济正在困境中挣扎，而外国投资者今年纷纷撤离该国国债。于是出现了一个令人担心的急迫问题：西班牙将如何支付其庞大的政府赤字？西班牙官方预计，该国今年的预算赤字将相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的5.3%，但外界普遍认为这一比例会更高。
西班牙银行业今年初曾有所起色，但现在又开始走下坡路，西班牙说，今年需要举债860亿欧元，以填补赤字缺口并偿还到期债务。到目前为止，西班牙已筹集到500亿欧元左右，还需从资本市场上再集资360亿欧元。通过向欧元区其它成员国开口求助，要求它们为本国银行业伸出援手，西班牙等于默认它难以从其他渠道筹措到资金。
瑞银驻伦敦的证券策略师奈特(Justin Knight)说，现在必须承认的一点是，西班牙在未来的某个时候有可能被债券市场完全拒之门外。他说，西班牙向欧盟寻求救助之举已经向所有的人证明，它到债券市场筹集资金的道路已经被部分堵死。
市场分析人士说，短期而言，西班牙国债的价格有可能受到提振。欧盟出手救助西班牙银行业意味着，西班牙眼下将不必通过发行新债来为救助本国银行业提供资金。由于投资者预计西班牙将与欧盟达成救助协议，西班牙国债价格上周出现回升，10年期国债收益率上周五报6.25%，较5月30日所创超过6.7%的高点有所回落。
由于几个月来外国投资者在西班牙国债市场上几乎已经绝迹，一直是西班牙银行的国债买盘在支撑着西班牙政府的融资需求，而西班牙政府现在则被迫要求欧盟为该国境况较差的银行提供扶持资金。与此同时，西班牙那些境况较好的银行现在则不愿意再购买政府债券，因为它们担心自己也会被拖下水。
一直以来，西班牙政府与银行业之间这种一损俱损的关系非常难以解除。
西班牙在上周六与欧洲财政官员会晤后说，它将通过很快要求欧元区进行救助来努力切断政府与银行业之间的这种关系。这些来自欧元区救助工具的资金将贷给西班牙政府，而西班牙政府将入股该国那些陷入困境的银行，向其提供现金或债券。
向西班牙提供救助的计划目前还缺乏细节，特别是对于将要求西班牙银行业为其得到的救助提供何种回报仍不甚了了。一位参与过该计划相关讨论的欧元区高级官员说，欧元区各成员国政府之所以迅速采取了行动，是因为西班牙距离无法通过市场筹集资金只差一步。
西班牙将把其银行业的监管权交给欧盟和国际上的监管机构，后者将详细审查西班牙银行的账目，并且有可能命令一些银行出售资产，甚至有可能要求一些它们认为无法继续生存下去的银行关门。
欧元区救助将为西班牙提供的明确帮助是：这是一种迅速筹集大量资金的低成本手段，如果不接受这种帮助，西班牙将不得不付出高昂的借贷成本，而且它很可能发现即使它愿意出高价也根本没有人愿意借钱给它。
但欧元区的救助也存在许多对西班牙不利的地方。首先，正如经济学家和市场分析人士所指出的，救助西班牙银行业的成本仍将由西班牙来承担，它必须偿还欧洲贷给它的救助资金。
其次，欧盟为此次救援所设定的条件将使西班牙更加难以从别处筹措到资金。这是因为，欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)作为这批救助贷款的主要提供方，将获得西班牙“优先”债权人的地位，如果西班牙发生债务违约，它将比西班牙国债的常规持有人有资格优先获得偿付。
瑞银的奈特说，由于投资者担心这一规定会使西班牙国债的持有人在偿还次序方面排在欧洲稳定机制之后，他们将不愿意再购买西班牙国债。
如果西班牙想避免该国政府也陷入接受救助的境地，它必须让借款人相信，该国银行业的问题得到了控制。做到这点并不容易。西班牙接下来还需要让借款人相信，尽管该国银行业出现了问题，但西班牙并不会陷入困境。
要做到这一点，欧盟和西班牙的正确做法应该是，将欧盟的此次救助当作是一个有限的支持项目，将其与希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰所需要接受的“侵入式”救助严格区别开来。
西班牙银行业的问题虽然严重，但却不是西班牙政府所面临的唯一问题。西班牙经济正在严重萎缩，国内失业率居高不下。中央政府在控制各地方政府的财政方面力不从心。
瑞信的霍沃思说，总有一天我们会知道，西班牙各地区所需要的资金比人们一直认为的要高出许多。她说，西班牙显然无法将其预算赤字占GDP的比重控制在5.3%以内。
Charles Forelle发自伦敦 / Gabriele Steinhauser发自布鲁塞尔